Background¶
This assessment was completed in 2025 and funded through the Resilient Florida program in compliance with Florida state statute 380.093. Although Tampa’s natural topography and coastline make it difficult to eliminate flood risks, researchers recommend continued investment in the improvement of Tampa’s infrastructure to mitigate the damage caused by climate hazards. As the City of Tampa continues to adapt to the hazards of the present and future, the vulnerability assessment will serve as a guide to prioritize resilient infrastructure projects. To see a list of Resilient Florida grants awarded to the City of Tampa, please visit the Resilient Florida Grants Dashboard.
Summary¶
In the coming decades, Tampa will experience the combined effects of gradual sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, and storm surge. They will impact Tampa in similar ways: overwhelming low-lying coastal areas and constricted inland basins, imperiling the private property and public assets within them. The frequency and distribution of impacts will vary because of the projected arrival or recurrence of each threat.
To measure the impact of these flood threats, the Vulnerability Assessment developed a range of scenarios for future-year flooding from each flood type and determined the impact to various critical assets. The natural defense of land elevation determines in large part the impact these flood threats will have across Tampa. A summary of elevations provides an intuitive understanding of the city’s most vulnerable areas, regardless of flood type.
Most of the city is at or above elevation 7 feet NAVD88, putting it above expected future sea elevations. Over the years, growth has expanded the urban footprint into low-lying areas, in some cases building new land over historic wetlands or oyster bars. Development has also filled open spaces that would have historically been part of the drainage system or lands adjacent to waterways that are within the floodplain. Most immediately, episodes of extreme rainfall, like the 13 inches that fell during Hurricane Milton, pose the most frequent and consistent threat to Tampa. Over the last century, homes and businesses have been built within inland basins that are susceptible to flooding, and many historic drainage mechanisms like sinks no longer function or function at a reduced capacity.
Sea-level rise presents a slower moving impact, but one that will combine with the seasonal threat of storm surge to create significant damage to Tampa’s neighborhoods. For example, most of the city is above 5 feet NAVD88, but Hurricane Helene (2024), water elevations reached 8 feet NAVD88. A uniform strategy won’t help – the varying conditions along the coast call for tailored adaptation approaches.
